There is no place that offers peace and quiet, fresh air, natural beauty, a glimpse of wildlife, gorgeous water views, opportunity and space to run, walk, bike, hike, play tennis, golf, soccer, softball, baseball, read under a tree […]. Today, it suffers from a long list of maintenance issues, littering, and flooding. Between the late s and early s, these marshes were slowly drained and filled to support agriculture and eventually residential development. A number of architecturally significant structures were built in the park, including the Municipal Stadium east of Broad and the American Swedish Historical Museum west of Broad Street, which remains to this day.
Predicting the future contribution from melting ice is problematic. Most sea level rise from ice melt actually comes from chunks of ice breaking off into the ocean, then melting.
This calving process is accelerated by warming but the dynamic processes are not strongly understood. How do the IPCC predictions compare to observations made since the two reports? Observed sea level rise is tracking at the upper range of model predictions. Why do climate models underestimate sea level rise?
The main reason for the discrepancy is, no surprise, the effects of rapid flow ice changes.
Ice loss from GreenlandAntarctica and glaciers are accelerating. Even East Antarctica, previously considered stable and too cold, is now losing mass. Instead of modelling glacier dynamics, the method uses model projections of global temperature which can be calculated with greater confidence.
Sea level change is then derived as a function of temperature change.
To confirm the relationship between sea level and temperature, observed sea level was compared to reconstructed sea level calculated from global temperature observations from to Observed rate of sea-level rise red compared with reconstructed sea level calculated from global temperature dark blue with light blue uncertainty range.
Grey line is reconstructed sea level from an earlier, simpler relationship between sea level and temperature Vermeer The historical record shows the robustness of the relationship between sea level and global temperature.
Thus, global temperature projections can be used to simulate sea levels into the future. A number of different emission scenarios were used, based on how carbon dioxide emissions might evolve over the next century. Overall, the range of projected sea level rise by is 75 to cm.
As you get closer tothe contribution from ice melt grows relative to thermal expansion. This is the main difference to the IPCC predictions which assume the portion of ice melt would diminish while thermal expansion contributes most of the sea level rise over the 21st Century.
Projection of sea-level rise from tobased on IPCC temperature projections for three different emission scenarios. Also shown in red is observed sea-level Vermeer Figure 3 shows projected sea level rise for three different emission scenarios.
The semi-empirical method predicts sea level rise roughly 3 times greater than the IPCC predictions. Note the IPCC predictions are shown as vertical bars in the bottom right.
For the higher emission scenario, which is where we're currently tracking, sea level rise by is around 1.
There are limitations to this approach. The temperature record over the past years doesn't include large, highly non-linear events such as the collapse of an ice sheet. Therefore, the semi-empirical method can't rule out sharp increases in sea level from such an event. Independent confirmation of the semi-empirical method is found in a kinematic study of glacier movements Pfeffer A similar analysis is also made of West Antarctic glaciers I can't find any mention of calculating ice loss from East Antarctica.ONE CLIMATE MODEL UNDER THE MILD EMISSIONS “B1” SCENARIO PAST 8 6 50 PRESENT observations FUTURE 40 30 PAST 8 6 PRESENT observations FUTURE 40 30 20 Adapting Water Management A primer on coping with climate change.
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